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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."