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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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